1. Research Goals and Methods

￮ Jeonbuk’s population peaked at 2.52 million in 1966 and has steadily declined to 1.76 million as of 2024, a drop of approximately 75,000 over the last decade, outpacing the nationwide decline that began in 2020. All cities and counties, except Jeonju, are at risk of demographic extinction, with Jinan, Muju, Jangsu, Imsil, Sunchang, Gochang, and Buan designated as high-risk depopulation zones.

￮ Population decline has led to social challenges, including economic decline, population aging, reduced infrastructure, and weakened local communities, requiring a shift from growth-oriented planning to smart shrinkage. Accordingly, this study analyzes land-use patterns across Jeonbuk using 250 m × 250 m grid cells (19,164 in total) to propose spatial planning roadmaps for a depopulation era.

￮ An analytical framework was built around two axes: regional decline and development potential. Decline was measured using population change, aging rate, and the proportion of aging buildings. Development potential was evaluated based on population density, the working-age population share, the number of business establishments, and accessibility to living infrastructure.

￮ Two dimensions were combined into integrated scores ranging from 0 to 4, classifying cities and counties into five types: (1) Loss of Vitality (unsustainable urban functions); (2) Vulnerability to Decline (fragile foundations amid accelerating decline); (3) High-Priority Intervention (urgent need for structural reform); (4) Stable Foundations (structural stability); and (5) Engines of Growth (expected sustainable growth). National Environmental Conservation Value Assessment Grades were also incorporated to indicate environmental value and development suitability.

2. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations

￮ The Vulnerability to Decline category holds the largest share across all cities and counties except Jeonju, with especially high levels in Gochang (67.1%), Imsil (60.0%), and Muju (54.8%). This pattern is most evident in counties, where vulnerability is concentrated in central urban districts.

￮ The Loss of Vitality category covers 22.5% of the total area, with high shares in Gimje (31.8%), Namwon (28.1%), and Jangsu (28.1%). These areas are spread throughout rural villages and urban outskirts, indicating that regional vitality has almost disappeared.

￮ The High-Priority Intervention category accounts for 34.8% in Jeonju, 26.4% in Wanju, and 22.0% in Gunsan and is concentrated in old downtowns and residential developments from the 1980s to 1990s, indicating an urgent need for intervention.

￮ The Stable Foundations category represents 28.2% in Jeonju, 9.1% in Gunsan, and 7.1% in Iksan and is mainly found in new urban districts and apartment complexes from the 1990s to 2000s.

￮ The Engines of Growth category covers only 0.7% of the total area and is limited to recently developed zones, such as Innovation Cities and Eco-Cities, with shares of 4.9% in Jeonju and 1.0% in Gunsan.

￮ The Loss of Vitality category is assigned a guided naturalization strategy, prioritizing Grade 1 areas in the Environmental Conservation Value Assessment for ecological reversion, greening, and ecosystem restoration through vacant-structure removal. The Vulnerability to Decline category uses a minimal shrinkage strategy that focuses on housing repair, phased service withdrawal, and safety-centered management. The High-Priority Intervention category is divided into reduced-use and ecological-use zones, promoting selective development and environmentally sustainable land use. Furthermore, the Stable Foundations category emphasizes function maintenance and neighborhood-based residential development, focusing on improving the residential environment and expanding local social infrastructure. The Engines of Growth category promotes proactive development, hub creation, and high-density mixed-use development to strengthen these areas as regional centers.

￮ Urban growth boundaries should be established for the 13 cities and counties, excluding Wanju, to limit sprawl and focus urban activities within designated centers. Urban areas should follow city-function-oriented and neighborhood-based residential strategies, while non-urban areas should be structured around designated non-urban hubs. In Jeonju, growth boundaries are set around the old downtown, Innovation City, and Eco-City. In small and mid-sized cities, these are implemented in established urban areas centered on city halls and major towns. Conversely, in county areas, 13 designated nodes (i.e., key eups and myeons in county seats) are selected for growth boundary designation. A compact, networked urban structure should be created by halting peripheral development, concentrating service facilities within growth boundaries, and strengthening public transit links between hubs. Phased managed shrinkage—combining functional withdrawal, naturalization, selective investment, and targeted development—should be used to end quantitative expansion and redirect zoning toward qualitative regeneration and spatial organization focused on enhancing quality of life 

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